Statistical Analysis and Time Series Models for Minimum/Maximum Temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula

Hughes, Gillian and Subba Rao, T (2006) Statistical Analysis and Time Series Models for Minimum/Maximum Temperatures in the Antarctic Peninsula. [MIMS Preprint]

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Abstract

Our object in this paper is to study the temperature variations in the Antarctic Peninsula using multiple regression models with correlated errors admitting ARMA models with nonGaussian innovations. We found that the Øtted models adequately describe the variations. The data we consider are minimum/maximum monthly temperatures recorded at the Faraday station by the British Antarctic Survey for the period from January 1951 to December 1995. The time series models considered here are novel in the sense that the linear ARMA models have innovations which have extreme value distributions, and the maximum likelihood estimation described here can be widely used in many disciplines. The time series models we Øtted indicate that the mean of the minimum temperatures is likely to increase over the next 50 years and the temperatures will be above 0oC during the summer months which means that the melting season will increase, creating more climatic and ecological problems. Although the mean temperature is reported to have increased by 2.5oC we believe that the maximum temperatures have remained unchanged over the past 45 years. This has led to a decrease in the diurnal temperature range which has also been observed in many other parts of the globe. The in°uence of human activity on climate is still unknown but our ability to perturb the ozone layer is an established fact. We established a relationship between minimum monthly temperatures and ozone levels and found they are highly negatively correlated (at a lag of one month) implying that the higher levels of ozone in the air keep temperatures low. This resulted in a new time series model relating the minimum temperatures to ozone levels. After appropriate statistical tests, we have come to the conclusion that the observed increase in the minimum temperatures is a consequence of human activity rather than natural causes and so a reduction in the production of \greenhouse gases" could lead to a decrease in minimum temperatures, thereby reducing the adverse eÆect of global warming in the Antarctic Peninsula.

Item Type:	MIMS Preprint
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Antarctic pensinsula, ozone levels, temperatures, time series models
Subjects:	MSC 2010, the AMS's Mathematics Subject Classification > 62 Statistics
Depositing User:	Dr Peter Neal
Date Deposited:	21 Mar 2006
Last Modified:	08 Nov 2017 18:18
URI:	https://eprints.maths.manchester.ac.uk/id/eprint/187

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